"Every regional economy has industries that export output, bring new money in from outside, and form the foundation on which all other growth depends. Driver and cluster analysis finds them — and shows exactly how to build on them."
The Conceptual Foundation

Drivers and Clusters: Two Distinct Concepts

A driver-cluster analysis is not a description of which industries are large or growing. It is a rigorous, multivariate statistical analysis that identifies which industries hold genuine competitive advantage over equivalent industries in other regions — and maps the entire economic ecosystem those industries support.

Phase 1 Outcome

Driver Industries

Driver industries are those in which a region holds its greatest competitive advantage — industries that produce far more output than local demand requires, export the surplus, and thereby import new money into the regional economy. They are identified through objective, multivariate statistical analysis of competitive position, productivity, specialization, earnings, and market share — not simply by employment size or recent growth.

Driver industries are classified as economic drivers (healthy, exporting), emerging drivers (growing in significance), or declining drivers (losing ground in output or employment).

Source: Hill, E. & Brennan, J. (2000). A Methodology for Identifying the Drivers of Industrial Clusters: The Foundation of Regional Competitive Advantage. Economic Development Quarterly, 14, 65–96.

Phase 2 Outcome

Competitive Industry Clusters

A cluster is a geographic concentration of competitive firms in the same or related industries that derive collective advantage from proximity to a driver. Cluster industries are those that:

  • Have close buy-sell relationships with the driver (supplier or customer chain)
  • Rely on common technologies shared with the driver
  • Draw from a specialized labor pool the driver also depends on

Cluster analysis uses regionalized IMPLAN input-output tables to identify backward (supply-chain) and forward (customer-chain) linkages — measured as a percent of the driver's total outlays and total output.

Structure of a Competitive Industry Cluster Supplier Industries Backward Linkages (IMPLAN) Driver Industries Competitive Advantage Core Customer Industries Forward Linkages (IMPLAN) Technology Links Common processes Labor Pool Shared workforce Supply / Customer Chain Technology / Labor Links

Figure: Structure of a Competitive Industry Cluster (adapted from Hill & Brennan, 2000)

The Analytical Framework

Twelve Variables. One Rigorous Picture.

Driver identification applies hierarchical cluster analysis and discriminant analysis across twelve variables that together capture an industry's competitive position, productivity, growth trajectory, and market orientation. No single metric tells the full story.

01Competitive PositionIndustry's share of regional output relative to national share
02Output GrowthChange in regional industry output over the study period
03Employment GrowthChange in regional industry employment over the study period
04ProductivityOutput per worker relative to national industry average
05Productivity GrowthChange in output per worker over the study period
06Relative EarningsAverage regional industry wage relative to national average
07Earnings GrowthChange in average regional industry wage over time
08Market ShareRegional output as a percent of national industry output
09Market Share GrowthChange in regional output share of national industry over time
10SpecializationLocation quotient — industry's regional concentration vs. national
11Specialization GrowthChange in location quotient over the study period
12Export OrientationEstimated share of output sold outside the regional market

A large industry with declining productivity, falling market share, and shrinking relative earnings is not a driver — it is a liability. The 12-variable framework captures past and present performance simultaneously, enabling economic interpretation rather than simple description.

The Analytical Methodology

A Rigorous, Two-Phase Approach

DMP-DA operationalizes the Hill & Brennan (2000) methodology — the most analytically comprehensive driver-cluster framework in the field — combining hierarchical mathematical cluster analysis, discriminant analysis, and IMPLAN-based input-output modeling.

Phase 1

Identifying Driver Industries

Driver identification proceeds in two sequential quantitative analyses applied to all 4-digit NAICS industries with meaningful regional employment, producing a statistically grounded ranking of each industry's competitive position.

Mathematical / Hierarchical Cluster Analysis Groups industries by similarity across the 12-variable profile. Produces candidate solutions for the number of distinct industry groups present. Because the method is mathematical rather than statistical, grouping is based on relative variable values — not distributional assumptions.
Discriminant Analysis Applied to the candidate solution from the cluster step. Generates discriminant functions interpretable in economic terms — identifying why industries were grouped together. Groups with a positive, significant relationship to the competitiveness function are candidate drivers.
Expert Filtering & Refinement Quantitative driver candidates are reviewed against output size, growth trajectories, and regional expert input. Small-output industries are filtered even if they score well statistically, ensuring economic significance.
Phase 2

Mapping Industry Clusters

Once drivers are confirmed, cluster mapping uses regionalized IMPLAN input-output tables to trace the supply and customer chains of each driver — identifying which industries are economically tied to its success.

Backward Linkages — Supplier Chain Identifies industries the driver buys from, measured as a percent of total outlays. Both regional and national I-O models are used — the regional model reveals which suppliers operate locally; the national model reveals potential suppliers currently imported from outside the region.
Forward Linkages — Customer Chain Identifies industries the driver sells to, measured as a percent of total output sold to other regional industries. Based on the regional I-O model only.
Technology & Labor Tie Identification Common process technologies and shared labor pool requirements are identified through industry-level data analysis and expert interviews, completing the cluster picture beyond supply chain linkages alone.
How a Study Is Conducted

Analytical Process Overview

1

Macro Economic Baseline

Establish regional economic context — employment, output, productivity, earnings — relative to state and national benchmarks.

2

Driver Identification

Apply hierarchical cluster plus discriminant analysis to all qualifying 4-digit NAICS industries using the 12 performance variables.

3

Expert Filtering

Validate and refine quantitative driver candidates with regional industry experts, focus groups, and executive interviews.

4

Cluster Mapping

Trace forward and backward supply chain linkages using IMPLAN I-O tables; identify technology and labor ties.

5

Strategy & Recommendations

Develop actionable economic development strategies, gap analyses, and investment priorities for each driver cluster.

Demonstrated Experience

Selected Driver & Cluster Projects

DMP Development Analytics brings firsthand experience applying this methodology at scale — from statewide manufacturing studies to multi-county regional analyses, across multiple Great Lakes states, in partnership with leading national economic research organizations.

2004
Pennsylvania · Statewide · Deloitte / Cleveland State University

Manufacturing Pennsylvania's Future

Led quantitative driver and cluster analysis for a comprehensive statewide manufacturing competitiveness study covering Pennsylvania's seven Industrial Resource Center (IRC) regions. Applied the Hill & Brennan output-based methodology to identify economic, emerging, and declining drivers at both the state and sub-state regional level. Analysis supported strategic recommendations for IRC programs, state policy, and industry retention and attraction efforts.

2005
Ohio · Statewide · Deloitte / Cleveland State University

Industry-Based Competitive Strategies for Ohio

Lead quantitative researcher for Ohio's statewide driver and cluster study — one of the most comprehensive analyses of Ohio's manufacturing and non-manufacturing economic base conducted at that time. Identified key driver industries and clusters at both the state and regional level; benchmarked Ohio's competitive position against comparator states; and developed gap analysis findings used to inform the state's economic development strategy and program investments.

2005
Wisconsin · Statewide · MPI Group / Brandt / WMEP

Wisconsin Manufacturing Study — Statewide

Lead quantitative researcher for the Wisconsin Manufacturing Extension Partnership (WMEP) statewide manufacturing study. Applied the Hill & Brennan 12-variable methodology across Wisconsin's seven county-based economic regions. Results identified regional driver industries and their competitive clusters for each region, documented export-oriented manufacturing strengths, and informed WMEP's service delivery strategy and state manufacturing policy.

2005
Wisconsin · Tri-County Region · MPI Group / Brandt

Tri-County Wisconsin Regional Cluster Study

Applied the Hill & Brennan methodology at the sub-regional level for the Tri-County Business Partnership. Identified driver industries and mapped competitive industry clusters using IMPLAN-based I-O analysis for supply chain linkages. Delivered findings and strategic recommendations tailored to the region's specific industrial base and economic development capacity.

Practical Applications

What Driver & Cluster Analysis Informs

Target Industry Studies

Driver analysis provides the objective, statistically defensible foundation for identifying which industries a region should actively recruit — replacing wish lists with evidence-based targeting.

Economic Development Strategy

Understanding which drivers are growing, declining, or emerging allows communities to direct incentives, workforce programs, and infrastructure investments where they will have the greatest economic return.

Supply Chain Gap Analysis

Cluster mapping — using national vs. regional IMPLAN I-O tables — reveals which supplier industries are absent from the local economy, creating import leakage and opportunities for business attraction.

Workforce & Education Alignment

Labor pool linkages within clusters identify which workforce skills and training programs are most critical to the competitive health of a region's core industries.

Manufacturing & Freight Policy

Cluster structure reveals the logistics and freight flows linking driver industries to their suppliers and customers — informing infrastructure investment priorities and freight corridor planning.

Program & Incentive Evaluation

Driver-cluster findings provide a baseline for evaluating whether economic development programs — MEP services, tax incentives, innovation programs — are serving the industries that matter most to regional competitive advantage.

Why This Approach

More Rigorous Than the Alternatives

Most cluster and target industry analyses rely on one or two simple metrics — location quotients, shift-share, or employment size — and produce results that reflect data manipulation rather than genuine competitive analysis. The Hill & Brennan methodology differs in four important ways.

Multivariate vs. Single-Metric

Twelve variables simultaneously capture an industry's competitive position, not just its size or recent growth. An industry that is large but declining, or growing but uncompetitive, is treated differently — and correctly.

Output-Based, Not Employment-Based

The methodology centers on output and market share — what an industry produces and sells — rather than employment counts, which can be misleading when productivity varies widely across industries.

Statistical, Not Subjective

Driver identification uses mathematical cluster analysis and discriminant analysis — not stakeholder preference or policy priority. Results can be examined, replicated, and defended in front of policymakers and grant agencies.

Clusters Are Mapped, Not Assumed

Rather than assuming which industries belong together, cluster mapping traces actual economic relationships through IMPLAN input-output analysis — revealing supply chains and labor ties that qualitative approaches miss entirely.

Interested in a Driver & Cluster Study for Your Region?

DMP Development Analytics is developing proposals to apply this methodology for communities and regions across the Great Lakes. We welcome early conversations about scope, fit, and approach.